Three Weeks Out Summary: Democrats' edge increases
Despite Republicans having some good news in the new finance reports, Democrats are still favored.
With three weeks until the polls close, I’m making four changes to our Virginia state legislative forecast in the Northern Virginia area. All four of these favor Democrats, with three of them on the House side and one on the Senate side.
HD-21 | Toss-Up → Tilt D
HD-22 | Tilt R → Toss-Up
HD-30 | Lean R → Tilt R
SD-31 | Tilt D → Lean D
Despite this, September proved to be an alright month for Republicans in the battle for the Virginia General Assembly. Here’s a table of the September fundraising gap in each competitive district:
House of Delegates
State Senate
As you can see, Democrats outraised Republicans in 7 out of 14 House of Delegates districts while Republicans outraised Democrats in 6. Stephen Miller-Pitts’ report isn’t available yet but I expect him to outraise Coyner in HD-75 based on conversations I’ve had with Democrats.
While Republicans had good fundraising numbers in HD-21 and HD-22, I’m not only factoring in campaign finance into these ratings, hence the changes in favor of Democrats in those two races. In fact, most of the factors for these changes are outside of the money race.
Before I do though, we at CNalysis would appreciate it if you could send us a donation to help our Election Night operations. We’re aiming to provide you with not only the fastest results available but also the most attractive. On Election Night, we are going to be having a live model that will indicate who’s favored to win each district and the chamber overall.