CNalysis Newsletter - April 15th, 2021

New podcasts with 2021 VA candidates, Virginia House rating changes coming Saturday, hyperdetailed interactive map coming out this weekend

Welcome to the CNalysis regular newsletter. Every two weeks, you will get the latest in state legislative politics as well as our forecasts and other work.


Get a Bang for Your Buck! Find out what the best state legislative races to donate to are while supporting CNalysis!

Are you looking to spend your money wisely when it comes to political donations? CNalysis has you covered. For just $5 a month, you can buy a subscription for our Bang for Your Buck content, with a new issue coming out in a few days (new issues come out as needed after new campaign finance data and/or rating changes). Using a model based on the most recent election result, campaign finance, its closeness to the recent tipping point as well as what its current rating is, CNalysis is figuring out what the best races to donate to are in state legislatures.

In 2021, we are solely focusing on the Virginia House, the only competitive chamber up this year. After redistricting though, we will be expanding our model nationwide and factoring in population in each seat so our BFYB subscribers get a good dollar per voter as well. Don’t miss out! Buy a subscription today and support CNalysis.


Virginia House Rating Changes to be Made in CNalysis Forecast Saturday

Today, campaign finance reports will start to trickle in for Q1 here in Virginia, covering January 1st to March 31st. We are expecting to make rating changes on Saturday thanks to this data, though we obviously do not know how many changes will be made. We already know that we will be making at least one in HD-66, though that is due to Sheila Bynum-Coleman dropping out of the race.

It’s also likely that we will be changing HD-21 from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic thanks to the Republicans recruiting a very strong candidate in this seat with demographic groups that swung rightward in 2020, though we want to see the financial numbers here first: if the GOP candidate, Tanya Gould, underperforms expectations, we will likely keep it in the Lean Democratic column.

Enough data should be in by Saturday for us to make rating changes. You can check our homepage that day for the article we’ll put out on what the rating changes are, and how our forecast odds have changed.

Saturday should be enough time for campaign finance data in competitive races to roll in on VPAP, which we will be using to analyze the data. If there are holdouts that produce data that require a rating change, we will update the article.


CNalysis to Release Interactive Map of 2020 Presidential Election by State Legislative District & Most Recent State Legislative Election Result this Weekend

Coming out as soon as Friday night, CNalysis will be releasing an interactive map that shows the 2020 presidential election in state legislative districts across the country. This is by far the biggest project we have worked on so far. We have calculations from 35/50 states so far and plan on trying to get every single state in before every state finishes its redistricting process.

Not only will this map have the presidential results by state legislative district, but you will also be able to see the most recent state legislative election result in each district, as well as being to compare and contrast state legislative candidates to their respective party’s presidential nominee performance. A loyalty map showing the districts’ incumbent party and how the district voted in 2020 will also be included.

Electoral data savants across “Election Twitter” have pitched in and provided their calculations for the map outside of states that do not already calculate this data themselves, such as Montana. In the legend on the top left of the map, you will be able to see who calculated the data.

For the election result data itself in these down-ballot races, we will have over 30 states by the time the map is released and will continue to enter the data as quickly as our volunteers for this project are able to. If you have experience in Google Sheets/Microsoft Excel as well as pulling election data and are interested in helping out to collect state legislative election data for this project, please contact us.

The map, once up, will appear on our Maps page. Below is a preview of just one of the many layers on the map viewers will be able to look at (it is also the only layer that does not use percentages), showing party loyalty (districts with incumbent party vs. how the district voted in the 2020 presidential election) in the lower state legislative chambers. This one is my personal favorite.

Our goal with this map is to help educate the public on the uniqueness of state legislatures compared to congressional elections (ticket-splitting is far more common on this level); we also hope it can be a useful guide for comparing upcoming maps in the redistricting process as states either undo gerrymanders or, unfortunately, draw new ones. Make sure you share it with your friends and family who may find this interesting once it comes out! Any time we get new data entered on the map, we will announce it on our Twitter, which you should follow if you aren’t already!


Our Latest Work


The Latest in State Legislative Politics

  1. Georgia lawmaker arrested for knocking on Gov. Kemp's door calls possible 8-year prison term 'unfounded' (yahoo.com)

  2. Marijuana will be legal in Virginia on July 1, years earlier than planned - Daily Press

  3. ‘Overtly racist and deeply offensive’: SC state rep. calls for colleague’s resignation (wistv.com)

  4. The Curse of the 38th is now dead - New Jersey Globe

  5. Sheila Bynum-Coleman does not turn in signatures for VA HD-66 bid, endorses Katie Sponsler

  6. Republicans overperform in New Hampshire House special election and Connecticut House special election

CNalysis Newsletter - March 31st, 2021

Matt Rogers pulls a Nick Freitas, new podcast episode, and more

Welcome to the CNalysis regular newsletter. Every two weeks, you will get the latest in state legislative politics as well as our forecasts and other work.


Seven Virginia House Candidates Fail to Make Primary Ballot

Yesterday, the Virginia Board of Elections kicked seven candidates running for the Virginia House of Delegates off of the ballot for the June primaries. These candidates failed to get efficient documentation in on time.

  1. Sarah Deitz (D) - HD-14 [Safe Republican]

  2. Randall Wolf (D) - HD-20 [Safe Republican]

  3. Matt Rogers (D) - HD-47 [Safe Democratic]

  4. Caitlin Coakley (D) - HD-65 [Safe Republican]

  5. Michael Jones (D) - HD-69 [Safe Democratic]

  6. Julie Perry (R) - HD-86 [Safe Democratic]

  7. Jordan Gray (R) - HD-93 [Likely Democratic]

Thankfully for five of these candidates, they can still be nominated by an alternative method chosen by local party officials, such as a firehouse primary, by June 1st. The only two candidates whose candidacies are now over are Michael Jones of HD-69, who was trying to primary incumbent Democrat Betsy Carr, and Matt Rogers of HD-47, who was trying to primary incumbent Democrat Patrick Hope.

A win for the House Democratic caucus for sure, as this saves resources they would have had to spend in these two primaries.


Our Latest Work


The Latest in State Legislative Politics

  1. Former Sen. Frank Artiles arrested in no-party candidate case | Miami Herald

  2. Hopewell city councilor, former mayor, is making a Virginia House bid (progress-index.com)

  3. Senator who sponsored cash bail ban is outraged: Driver who threatened him with gun only had to post $1,500 to get out of jail | CWB Chicago

  4. How the Wyoming Senate killed Medicaid expansion, again | WyoFile

  5. Video: State Board of Elections Decides NOT To Grant Extensions to Several House of Delegates Candidates | Blue Virginia

CNalysis Newsletter - March 17th, 2021

Welcome to the second issue of the CNalysis regular newsletter. Every two weeks, you will get a newsletter on the latest in state legislative politics as well as our forecasts and other work.


Forecast Update - Democrats Now Odds-On Favorite in Virginia House

On Tuesday, we made 14 rating changes in the Virginia House of Delegates. These changes are based on the new dataset of the 2020 Presidential Results in each Virginia House district provided by Ryan Brune (@BruneElections), which he wrote about in CNalysis here.

  1. HD-02 | Likely D → Solid D

  2. HD-10 | Toss-Up → Tilt D

  3. HD-12 | Tilt D → Toss-Up

  4. HD-13 | Likely D → Very Likely D

  5. HD-31 | Tilt D → Lean D

  6. HD-50 | Tilt D → Lean D

  7. HD-51 | Tilt D → Lean D

  8. HD-54 | Solid R → Very Likely R

  9. HD-62 | Very Likely R → Likely R

  10. HD-72 | Tilt D → Lean D

  11. HD-73 | Toss-Up → Tilt D

  12. HD-82 | Solid R → Very Likely R

  13. HD-91 | Lean D → Likely D

  14. HD-93 | Lean D → Likely D

As you can see, 13 of these changes favor Democrats, while one of these changes favors Republicans. The odds of Democrats controlling the chamber now sits at about 50%, an increase of almost 5%, while the odds of a Republican majority are now at 46%, 5% lower than what it was before this update. You can find our full forecast for the Virginia House of Delegates here.


Our Latest Work


The Latest in State Legislative Politics

  1. Governor Ralph Northam endorses Jay Jones for Attorney General

  2. Virginia GOP ends months-long standoff on nomination method

  3. The Va. GOP’s 2021 convention is a mess. A new law might make them even harder in the future.

  4. How Florida’s State House Districts Voted in 2020

  5. Democrats Win SD-14 Special in Maine Handily

  6. Majority leader of Kansas state Senate arrested

  7. Entire Staff of Nevada Democratic Party Quits After DSA Slate Won Every Seat

  8. Census says it’s now impossible to deliver redistricting data by March 31

  9. Upcoming Special Election for 23rd State Senate District in Virginia

  10. Virginia Candidates Find Creative Uses for Campaign Cash

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