CNalysis Newsletter - May 21st, 2022

Latest redistricting news, state legislative election news, and forecast updates

Welcome to the free CNalysis regular newsletter. Every two weeks, you will get the latest in state legislative politics as well as our forecasts and other work.

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How to support our work at CNalysis to keep the site going:

• Are you looking to spend your money wisely when it comes to political donations? CNalysis has you covered. For just $5 a month (or ($50/year), you can buy a subscription for our Bang for Your Buck content. Using a model based on district ratings, chamber ratings, campaign finance, district population and presidential results, CNalysis is figuring out what the best races to donate to are in state legislatures across the country. For more details, you can see our methodology here. You can subscribe with the button below!

• Check out our store with union-made gear from GibsonPrint: we have beanies, stickers, and buttons!

• Make a direct donation to CNalysis using the button below - the suggested donation is $25, but we’d appreciate any amount you’d choose!

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Our Latest

• District Profile: Virginia House of Delegates District 55 - Chaz’s Favorite

• Services kit updated, CNalysis now offers interactive maps, static maps, district profiles

• Bang for Your Buck | Colorado & New Mexico

• Podcast | Competition in Kansas (feat. Jackson Martin)

• Podcast | Sooner Curator: Oklahoma’s Most Competitive Races (feat. Dan Williams) - Chaz’s Favorite

• Primary Preview: Idaho

• Primary Post-Mortem: Idaho

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Forecast Updates

• New Mexico gets the honor of having the first campaign finance-based forecast update

• Preliminary Ohio forecast launches

• Missouri added to US House preliminary ratings

• Pennsylvania Gubernatorial race moves from Toss-Up to Tilt Democratic

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The Redistricting Front

1. New York State Senate draft lines drawn by special master revealed

2. Judge rules that new Alaska legislative maps are gerrymandered to favor Republicans

3. Florida’s 5th district may be restored

4. Kansas Supreme Court holds up Republican-favoring maps for Congress and state legislature

5. Census Bureau says some states were severely undercounted or overcounted, many months after Congressional reapportionment finished

   1. Changes in Congressional representation if these errors were fixed

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Latest in State Legislative Politics

1. Arizona Senate will vote on the expulsion of Wendy Rogers (R)

2. Another Republican in state legislatures cites false “litter box” stories in schools concerning furries

3. Former Arizona Representative is investigated for committing a hit-and-run against his wife

4. Democratic nominee for Democratic-held seat in Lumbee County, North Carolina basically concedes the general election to the Republican

5. Alaska journalist James Brooks notes the possibility of a Democratic-led coalition in the Alaska Senate after the general election

CNalysis Newsletter - May 7th, 2022

Latest redistricting news, state legislative election news, and forecast updates

Welcome to the free CNalysis regular newsletter. Every two weeks, you will get the latest in state legislative politics as well as our forecasts and other work.

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How to support our work at CNalysis to keep the site going:

• Are you looking to spend your money wisely when it comes to political donations? CNalysis has you covered. For just $5 a month (or ($50/year), you can buy a subscription for our Bang for Your Buck content. Using a model based on district ratings, chamber ratings, campaign finance, district population and presidential results, CNalysis is figuring out what the best races to donate to are in state legislatures across the country. For more details, you can see our methodology here. You can subscribe with the button below!

• Check out our store with union-made gear from GibsonPrint: we have beanies, stickers, and buttons!

• Make a direct donation to CNalysis using the button below - the suggested donation is $25, but we’d appreciate any amount you’d choose!

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Our Latest

• 2020 Presidential by 2020s Legislative Districts

• Florida added to US House forecast, NY and KS taken down

• Services kit updated, CNalysis now offers interactive maps, static maps, district profiles

• Bang for Your Buck Newsletter launches

• New Podcast: PA legislature with Ben Forstate

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Forecast Updates

• Toss-Up MN State Senate seat goes to Lean R after Democrat who was able to win equivalent Trump 2020 district retires

• Colorado forecasts updated post-candidacy filings

• OH-09 moved from Likely R to Toss-Up after GOP nominates weak candidate

• MI House moves from Lean R to Tilt R post-candidacy filings

• New WI legislative forecast

• FL US House ratings out

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The Redistricting Front

1. NY Court of Appeals kills NY Congressional map, which was a Democratic gerrymander

2. Wyandotte County judge strikes down Kansas congressional map, likely leaving it up to the Kansas Supreme Court to decide

3. Florida enacts congressional map

4. Maryland’s legislative map, which is a Democratic gerrymander, is upheld in court

5. Wisconsin Supreme Court enacts stronger Republican gerrymander

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Latest in State Legislative Politics

1. Retiring US Representative Butterfield endorses conservative Democrat in Democratic primary to replace him

2. State Rep. Kelli Butler opts out of re-election

3. Republican State Senate candidate in Michigan says he’s against interracial marriage

4. Former State Rep. in Florida runs for Toss-Up seat in Tampa

5. An update on the court battle for 2022 House of Delegates elections in Virginia

6. Idaho State Rep considers planning IUDs and Plan B

7. MI Democrats flip double-digit Trump district due to incredibly weak GOP nominee

CNalysis Newsletter - April 11th, 2022

Latest redistricting news and forecast changes

Welcome to the free CNalysis regular newsletter. Every two weeks, you will get the latest in state legislative politics as well as our forecasts and other work.

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How to support our work at CNalysis to keep the site going:

• Are you looking to spend your money wisely when it comes to political donations? CNalysis has you covered. For just $5 a month (or ($50/year), you can buy a subscription for our Bang for Your Buck content. Using a model based on district ratings, chamber ratings, campaign finance, district population and presidential results, CNalysis is figuring out what the best races to donate to are in state legislatures across the country. For more details, you can see our methodology here. You can subscribe with the button below!

• Check out our store with union-made gear from GibsonPrint: we have beanies, stickers, and buttons!

• Make a direct donation to CNalysis using the button below - the suggested donation is $25, but we’d appreciate any amount you’d choose!

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Our Latest

• 2020 Presidential by 2020s Legislative Districts - WY, NJ, KS, MO Senate results added, MO, SC, IN, IA party loyalty added

• Louisiana congressional map added to US House forecast, Maryland taken down

• JMC poll that CNalysis sponsored gets JMC nominated for award

• Podcast - Bang for Your Buck: How does it work? (feat. Jackson Martin)

• 2021 New Jersey State Senate results

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Forecast Updates

• Post-candidacy filing ratings in Pennsylvania give Democrats slight boost, but both state legislative chambers are heavily favored to stay in Republican hands

• Maine House moves from Toss-Up to Tilt R after candidacy filings

• State Senator Kendra Anderson (D) retires from Rhode Island State Senate, making her seat slightly competitive

• State Representative William Cogswell (R), the top-overperforming Republican in the South Carolina House, opts out of re-election, making his seat go from Solidly Republican to highly competitive

• Majority of South Carolina House districts to go uncontested

• Updated ratings in California legislature post-candidacy filings

• Republicans might be able to win every district in the South Dakota Senate

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The Redistricting Front

1. An update on the redistricting battle between the Ohio Supreme Court and state legislature from Dave Wasserman

2. DeSantis vetoes legislature’s congressional map in Florida

3. Louisiana legislature overrides John Bel Edwards’ veto of Republican gerrymander with a coalition of Republicans, Independents, and one conservative Democrat, enacting lines

4. Vermont enacts new state legislative districts, both are multi-member district chambers

5. FiveThirtyEight analyzes state legislative redistricting

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Latest in State Legislative Politics

1. Chaz Nuttycombe talks 2023 Virginia State Senate primaries on PodVA

2. Michigan state representative Mari Manoogian (D-Birmingham) opts out of re-election

3. Nebraska State Senator bizarrely talks about furries in schools, has since retracted claims

4. Black Republican has major overperformance in South Carolina State Legislative special

5. Michigan House candidate Melissa Carone disqualified from ballot

6. Republicans favored in over 200 Biden districts for 2022 elections, Democrats favored in just 25 Trump districts

7. Former Virginia Delegate Josh Cole teases comeback bid for 2023, likely for open House of Delegates seat

8. Last Blue Dog Democrat in Tennessee legislature, John Mark Windle, seeks re-election as Independent

9. Texas State Senator Beverly Powell (D) drops re-election bid after it becomes clear Republican gerrymanders in Texas will stay in place for 2022

10. Democratic State Rep. secures nomination for new CO-08